We have all been guilty of being over optimistic when predicting how long a task will take because of the planning fallacy. First identified in 1977, the planning fallacy was defined as: “the tendency to underestimate the amount of time needed to complete a future task, due in part to the reliance on overly optimistic performance scenarios (预测).”
It is extremely common. 1[■] For instance, a study conducted with psychology students found that only 30% of them managed to complete their senior papers in the amount of time they predicted.
What’s more, the planning fallacy is an incredibly stubborn problem. 2[■] While we are able to recognise past predictions where we have been over-optimistic, we often keep on insisting that our current predictions are realistic.
The planning fallacy is such a deep-rooted behavior. However, there are a few systematic strategies you can use to start building the habit of double-checking your time estimates. For instance, you can take the outside view. 3[■] Make sure to consult experts and people who have attempted to complete similar projects in the past. If you’re a student, talk to senior students; if you’re writing a book, join a network of writers.
4[■] You need to differentiate between tasks that are urgent and important, important but not urgent, urgent but not important, neither urgent nor important.
Once you have an objective estimate of the time it will take to complete a project, you need to make sure you have the time and resources to carry out your plan. 5[■] Breakdown big tasks into smaller, manageable chunks. Don’t wait until the last minute to let people know you may need their help in the near future.